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MM305 Unit 7 Project : Decision Analysis, Forecasting, and Network Optimization: A Comprehensive College Assignment

Project covering decision analysis, forecasting, and network optimization.

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    MM305 Unit 7 Project 1 MM305 Unit 7 Project : Decision Analysis, Forecasting, and Network Optimization: A Comprehensive College Assignment Name: Directions:  In this project you will be using the States Data file that is found in Doc Sharing under the Instructor - Graded Projects:  S teps for accessing the States Data file : 1. Open your Excel with PhStat 2 2. Click File — Open 3. Select the States Data file  Not all questions require the use of technology or the States Date file.  You may insert your answers, including any charts, graphs, or output, on this document.  Be sure to put your name on this document and save it to your computer. 1. After careful analysis, Susan developed the following table: Size of Gasoline Station Good Market ($) Fair Market ($) Poor Market ($) Small $70,000 $30,000 - $30,000 Medium $110,000 $50,000 - $40,000 Large $170,000 $70,000 - $50,000 1. Develop a decision table for this decision. Decision Tables Data Profit Favourable market Unfavourable market Small 70000 - 30000 Med 110000 - 40000 Large 170000 - 50000 Do nothing 0 0 2. What is the Maximax decision? Data Profit Favourable market Unfavourable market Maximax Small 70000 - 30000 70000 Med 110000 - 40000 110000 Large 170000 - 50000 170000

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    MM305 Unit 7 Project 2 Do nothing 0 0 170000 < -- Maximax (maximum of row and column) 17000 0 3. What is the Maximin decision? Data Profit Favourable market Unfavourable market Maximin Small 70000 - 30000 - 30000 Med 110000 - 40000 - 40000 Large 170000 - 50000 - 50000 Do nothing 0 0 - 50000 < -- Maximin (minimum of row and column) - 50000 4. What is the criterion of realism decision? Use α = 0. 6 . Data Profit Favourable market Unfavourable market Criterion of Realism ( 𝛼 = 0.6) Small 70000 - 30000 30000 Med 110000 - 40000 50000 Large 170000 - 50000 82000 Do nothing 0 0 0 5. Develop an Opportunity Loss Table Opportunity Loss Payoff Table: Good Market ($) Fair Market ($) Poor Market ($) Small $70,000 $30,000 ($30,000) Medium $110,000 $50,000 ($40,000) Large $170,000 $70,000 ($50,000) Opportunity Loss Table: Optimum Optimum Alternatives Action Profit Good Market ($) Fair Market ($) Poor Market ($) Small Good Market ($) 70000 0 40000 100000

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    MM305 Unit 7 Project 3 Medium Good Market ($) 110000 0 60000 150000 Large Good Market ($) 170000 0 100000 220000 6. What is the Minimax Regret Decision? Regret Favourable market Unfavourable market Expected Maximum Probability 0.5 0.5 Small 100000 0 50000 100000 Med 60000 10000 35000 60000 Large 0 20000 10000 20000 Minimum 10000 20000 2 . Data collected on the yearly demand for 50 - pound bags of fertilizer at Sunshine Garden Supply are shown in the following table. Year Demand for Fertilizer (1,000s of Bags) 1 4 2 7 3 5 4 5 5 10 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 10 14 11 15 Use Excel QM to: 1. Develop a three - year moving average to forecast sales in year 12. Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average Num pds 3 Data Period Demand Year 1 4 Year 2 7

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