Skip to content
Class Notes

Lesson 3 Unit 4 Public Opinion Activity

This content explains how public opinion is measured through various types of polls (opinion, benchmark, tracking, exit) and highlights the importance of accurate sampling methods in shaping elections, policymaking, and understanding voter behavior.

Preview 3 of 7 pages

See the first 3 pages exactly as they appear in the document.

  1. Page 1
    Read page 1 as text

    Name _________________________________________________________________ AP U.S. Government and Politics UNI I 4: American Political Ideologies and Beliefs PUBLIC OPINION Assignment on Page 7

  2. Page 2
    Read page 2 as text

    Measuring Public Opinion Candidates running for office want to know their chances of winning and which groups support them. Once elected, members of Congress want to know how their constituents regard proposed bills and how they view different types of government spending. These elected officials and their staff members monitor public opinion by reading constituents' letters and emails, holding town hall meetings, and reviewing surveys that are conducted in their states or districts. News organizations rely on, and even sponsor, polls to see where the public stands on important issues and political candidates. Putotic opinion data can affect elections policy debates. Public opinion data is influenced by different types of scientific polls. c Opinion polls: measures public opinion on various issues. These polls gauge attitudes on issues or support for candidates in an election in a cross-section of the population o Benchmark polls: often the first type of poll used by a political campaign, often before a potential candidate has declared his or her intentions. Benchmark polls are used to measure support for a candidate and to gather information about the issues that people care about. These polls create baseline views of a candidate. o Tracking polls: follow how views of a candidate change during a campaign. Tracking polls used during the course of an election allow a campaign to "track" issues and how a candidate is faring with voters. This kind of information helps candidates make decisions for shaping the campaign, particularly in the final weeks and days of the election. o Exit polls: collect data on why people voted the way they did. Polling services and the news media use these polls in national and statewide elections to help them offer predictions as well as to gain insight into the thoughts and behaviors of voters or to identify and analyze how different demographics actually voted. Potting data is influenced by polling methodology. Polling methodology is more precise u)hen it includes: o Accurate sampling methods. Proper sampling techniques assure an accurate poll with a random and fair representation of the population. The pollster takes a representative sample, a group of people meant to represent the large group in question, known as the universe. A nationally representative sample often has about 1,500 respondents, while a sample to determine public opinion within a single state would be much smaller. Pollsters must also obtain a random sample. That is, every single member of the universe must have an equal chance of selection into the sample.

  3. Page 3
    Read page 3 as text

    Even the most cautious survey with appropriate sampling techniques cannot guarantee absolute precision. Every poll has a sampling error, the difference between poll results, also called margin of error. The sample size and the margin of error have an inverse relationship. That is, as the sample gets larger, the marg'r of error decreases. o Neutral framing of questions. Reliable pollsters construct questionnaires with unbiased, property worded, and appropriately ordered questions. Pollsters phrase survey questions to avoid skewing the results. The wording should be objective and not emotionally charged. How a question is framed also affects responses. Framing a question means posing it in a way that emphasizes a certain perspective. Poll results on such emotional issues as abortion, same-sex marriage! and affirmative action can be distorted depending on the wording. o Accurate reporting: Reporting of poll data is clear and concise. When conclusions can be supported by the data, polls seem more reliable. Evaluating Public opinion Data (A/v) Poes foiling affect elections and policy debates? Polling can affect Elections: Polls lend themselves to ''horse race 1 ' news coverage in which elections are reported as if the most important aspect is which candidate is in the lead. Critics of "horse race" journalism argue voters need more substance, such as how a candidate views major issues that affect social policy or government spending. This kind of media coverage can translate into significant political influence as well. National polling influences whose voice will be heard at the televised debate and whose would be silenced. For example, early in the Republican primary season in 201 6, the first debate among the party's candidates was being planned with 1 7 candidates tying for the nomination. The host of the debate, Fox News, decided to I'm t the number of participarts to 1 0. Fox would choose from the 17 candidates those who registered in the top spots from an average of five national polls as the debate grew near. If anyone in the top ten failed to earn at least a 5 percent ranking in the polls, that person would be eliminated from the debate. In such debates, candidates with higher poll numbers are stationed toward the middle of the stage allowing them to appear on the screen more frequently and say more. National polling also exerts influence on elections through the bandwagon effect— a shift of support to a candidate or position holding the lead in public opinion polls ard therefore believed to be endorsed by many people. The more popular a candidate or position, the more likely increasing numbers of people will "hop on the bandwagon" and add their support. People like to back a winning candidate. The bardwagon effect is also partly responsible for the direct link between a candidate's rank in national polls and the ability to raise campaign finds. The higher the national ratings, the more campaign contributions a candidate can elicit. The larger a candidate's war chest— the funds used to pay for a campaign— the more ads a candidate can buy and the larger the staff a candidate can maintain. Both greatly influence the outcome of an election.

4 more pages in the full document

Unlock it once and it stays in your library, ready to chat with or turn into flashcards.

Unlock the full document

More Political Science study materials

See all

Study this document with CramX

Once it is in your library, every tool can work from it.