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Assessment of Probability, Decision Making, and Simulation Techniques

Covers probability and simulation techniques in decision-making.

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    Assessment of Probability, Decision Making, and Simulation Techniques  Question 1 5 out of 5 points Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: True  Question 2 5 out of 5 points An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: True  Question 3 5 out of 5 points A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously. Answer Selected Answer: False Correct Answer: False  Question 4 5 out of 5 points A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches. Answer Selected Answer: False

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    Correct Answer: False  Question 5 0 out of 5 points Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: False  Question 6 5 out of 5 points A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated. Answer Selected Answer: False Correct Answer: False  Question 7 5 out of 5 points The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future. Answer Selected Answer: True Correct Answer: True  Question 8 5 out of 5 points Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns. Answer Selected Answer: False Correct Answer: False

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     Question 9 5 out of 5 points Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot. Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot? Answer Selected Answer: 6.36 minutes Correct Answer: 6.36 minutes  Question 10 5 out of 5 points In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event. Answer Selected Answer: marginal Correct Answer: marginal  Question 11 5 out of 5 points The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision. Answer Selected Answer: expected opportunity loss Correct Answer: expected opportunity loss  Question 12 5 out of 5 points

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    Consider the following frequency of demand: If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for demand would be Answer Selected Answer: 3 Correct Answer: 3  Question 13 5 out of 5 points Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random. Answer Selected Answer: a uniform distribution Correct Answer: a uniform distribution  Question 14 5 out of 5 points Developing the cumulative probability distribution helps to determine Answer Selected Answer: random number ranges Correct Answer: random number ranges  Question 15 5 out of 5 points A seed value is a(n) Answer

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