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Predicting Final Exam Scores and Course Grades for General Biology Students: A Multiple Regression Analysis

Statistical analysis of academic performance predictors in biology

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    Predicting Final Exam Scores and Course Grades for General Biology Students: A Multiple Regression Analysis Executive summary Here in this report we are concerned with the analysis of the PC student’s last semester scores to predict the scores on the final exam for Nan McPherson, an assistant professor of biology at Prescott College ( PC ), of students in a General Biology Class (Bio. 457) and then also predict the student’s final course grade . Here the method which has been followed for analysis is the method of regression. A multiple regression will be conducted on the student’s last semester scores to predict the scores and grades in this semester. Before doing the final analy sis the data will be tested if it satisfies the assumptions of regression like normal distribution of the data. For this box plot and Q - Q plots are used. Also histogram is built to test the normality. Other than this descriptive statistics will be calculated to see the basic behaviour of the data. It is recommended to see all these analysis before concluding anything on scores and grades. Also the R — square values and other things to see how confident we can be while using the analysis actually. Background Nan McPherson, an assistant professor of biology at Prescott College (PC), has been wondering if she could predict the scores on the final exam for her students in a General Biology Class (Bio. 457) and then also predict the student’s final course grade. She has recorded the exam and final grades for 25 students who took her General Biology class last semester and wants your help in predicting the final exam scores and the final grades for 5 “typical” PC students. The professor knows that there are a maximum of 100 points for each of the three unit exams and a maximum of 200 points for the final exam. Based on the college’s grading scale, the final grade in this course will be determined by the following total point value ranges. Table 1. Prescott College Uniform Grading Scheme for General Biology Classes (Max. of 500 points)

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    Total Max. Points: 500 Final Grade Percentiles Minimum points Maximum points A 94 to 100 470 500 A - 89 to 93 445 469 B+ 85 to 88 425 444 B 82 to 84 410 424 B - 78 to 81 390 409 C+ 74 to 77 370 389 C 70 to 73 350 369 C - 66 to 69 330 349 D+ 61 to 65 305 329 D 57 to 60 285 304 D - 52 to 56 260 284 F 51 and below 0 259 Problem Here the main problem is to test the assumptions carefully and analyze the data accordingly by modifying the data accordingly or as is required. After carefully analyzing and studying the data we have to conduct the final regression analysis and then interpret t according to the required problem. Analysis One variable summary is : Statistics EXAM 1 EXAM 2 EXAM 3 FINAL Mean 79.04 79.48 81.48 162.04 Standard Error 2.455931595 2.500746555 2.35309725 4.808839084 Median 79 82 85 164 Mode 93 83 90 175 Standard Deviation 12.27965798 12.50373278 11.76548625 24.04419542 Sample Variance 150.79 156.3433333 138.4266667 578.1233333 Range 49 52 45 95 Minimum 47 46 55 101 Maximum 96 98 100 196 Sum 1976 1987 2037 4051 Quartile 1 73 73 73 148 Quartile 2 79 82 85 164 Quartile 3 88 89 90 180 IQR 15 16 17 32 Count 25 25 25 25

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