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Simulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation for Operational Decision-Making - Document preview page 1

Simulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation for Operational Decision-Making - Page 1

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Simulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation for Operational Decision-Making

An assignment simulating probability distributions for decision-making scenarios.

Michael Davis
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Simulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation for Operational Decision-Making - Page 1 preview imageSimulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation forOperational Decision-MakingFirst develop random number ranges for the probability distribution as shown in thefollowing table.Time betweenemergency calls (inhrs)ProbabilityCumulativeprobabilityRandom numberrange10.150.151-1520.10.2516-2530.20.4526-4540.250.746-7050.20.971-9060.1191-100a)Randomly generateemergency calls for 3 days (3*24=72 hours) and assign thecorresponding time between emergency callsRandomly 72 numbers are simulated and the corresponding time is allocated.b)From the random number table, the average time between calls is 3.76389 (from excel)The actual expected value of the time between calls,10.1520.1...60.13.55EX 
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Simulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation for Operational Decision-Making - Page 2 preview image
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Simulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation for Operational Decision-Making - Page 3 preview imageThe actual result and the simulated averages are slightly different. The expected value is thelong term average which may not be the same for every trialFirst develop random number ranges for the probability distribution as shown in thefollowing table.Time betweenemergency calls (inhrs)ProbabilityCumulativeprobabilityRandom numberrangexp(x)10.350.351-350.3520.250.636-600.530.20.861-800.640.2181-1000.82.25
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Simulation of Probability Distributions and Random Number Generation for Operational Decision-Making - Page 4 preview imagea)Thearrival of cars at the service station for 20 arrivals is shown in the following table andthe corresponding average time between arrivals is calculated.Randomnumbersimulatedtime913133151231171351254276383423137276356221137219132181773Average1.85
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